Gridiron Challenge: Week 16 preview

By Tristan H. Cockcroft
ESPN.com
Archive

Each week, Tristan H. Cockcroft offers his strategies for the Gridiron Challenge game. Look for his best and worst matchups every Thursday.

Matchups I Like

Derek Anderson, QB, Browns (@CIN, 6.9 price tag): It was a Week 2 matchup with these same Bengals that spawned a breakout season from Anderson, seemingly one of the most unlikely such candidates in all of football at the time. He threw for 328 yards and five scores that day, and since then has 13-plus fantasy points in 11 of 12 games, with the only exception being a five-point performance in a blizzard in Week 15. The Bengals' pass defense ranks 24th in the league, so Anderson is primed for another huge effort.

Deion Branch, WR, Seahawks (BAL, 5.0): He has 21 receptions for 263 yards and three touchdowns the past three weeks, earning a respectable 36 targets during that span (11th-most among receivers). Matt Hasselbeck certainly seems to trust him -- and Bobby Engram, too, for that matter -- so count on another standout game against a Ravens pass defense that has allowed 23 scores this season, fifth-most in the NFL.

Buccaneers defense (@SF, 5.1): Tampa Bay's defense has actually been one of the more underappreciated defenses of 2007, and it has become an ideal matchups option. Consider that in six games against bottom-half offenses (in terms of total yards per game), the Bucs have averaged 17.8 fantasy points; in their other eight contests, that number is 3.6. The 49ers, meanwhile, have helped opposing defenses average 12.7 fantasy points the past nine weeks despite battling some pretty weak units (Panthers, Falcons, Rams). The Niners rank dead last in total yards per game (242.8), so count on a standout effort from the Bucs.

Ryan Grant, RB, Packers (@CHI, 5.8): I can't bet against a guy this blazing hot; Grant has four 100-yard efforts, six touchdowns and averages of 96.5 rushing yards per game and 4.2 yards per carry the past eight weeks. Grant is on an absolute tear, a must-start for fantasy, and let's not forget that the Packers amassed 121 yards and a score on the ground against the Bears in Week 5, and that was with less-talented runners than Grant.

Matt Hasselbeck, QB, Seahawks (BAL, 7.6): He ranks eighth among quarterbacks in fantasy points and is a dominating force at home, where he has averaged 273.4 passing yards with 16 touchdowns in seven games. Now Hasselbeck draws the Ravens, whose secondary is ravaged by injuries and has allowed 10 passing scores the past four weeks.

Fred Taylor, RB, Jaguars (OAK, 5.3): That's four consecutive 100-yard rushing efforts for Taylor, and two of them came in road contests against the Colts and Steelers, two of the stronger teams in the league. He's averaging 6.9 yards per carry during that span, and in the past two weeks, he has eight red zone carries to Maurice Jones-Drew's three. That's a clear sign Taylor is the go-to guy for Jacksonville right now, so who better to capitalize on a Raiders run defense that has allowed 21 scores this season, 11 of them since Week 9?

Roddy White, WR, Falcons (@ARI, 4.6): He continues to garner as many targets as anyone, with 39 the past four weeks, eighth-most among receivers, and 65 the past seven weeks combined. Plus, despite his one-catch performance in Week 15 in Tampa Bay, which was as much the result of a brutal matchup as anything else, White has 20 receptions for 329 yards and three touchdowns the past four weeks. Now he draws the Cardinals, an ice-cold pass defense. The Redbirds have allowed 286.4 yards per game and 12 scores the past five weeks, both league lows.

Sleepers

Todd Collins, QB, Redskins (@MIN, 4.8 price tag): No, he hasn't done anything that special for fantasy the past two weeks, but he hasn't performed poorly, either, totaling 390 passing yards and two scores with no interceptions. Teams generally throw all day against the Vikings, an average of 41.4 times per game, tops in the league, and have averaged 266.4 passing yards per contest, again tops in the league. You do the math.

Tony Scheffler, TE, Broncos (@SD, 3.8): There's a real chance both Daniel Graham (ankle) and Brandon Stokley (knee) will be sidelined this week, in which case Jay Cutler will have nobody to throw to other than Scheffler and Brandon Marshall. Scheffler earned nine targets in Week 15 under similar circumstances, and the Chargers do allow 6.9 fantasy points per game to tight ends, ninth-most in the NFL.

Kolby Smith, RB, Chiefs (@DET, 4.3): He bounced back nicely from a terrible 14-touch, 10-total yard Week 14 with 105 total yards in Week 15 against Tennessee. But this sleeper call is more about the matchup than anything else. Smith grades out as a No. 2/flex in traditional leagues this week, but he has more upside than that; the Lions have allowed 149.8 rushing yards per game and eight rushing scores the past five weeks.

Matchups I'd Avoid

Shaun Alexander, RB, Seahawks (BAL, 4.5 price tag): When are people going to accept the fact that Alexander is clearly past his prime? In his past eight games, he has averaged 42.1 rushing yards per contest and 2.8 yards per carry, totaling one touchdown. Now he battles Baltimore, whose run defense ranks second in the NFL (77.0 yards per game), and still will share carries with Maurice Morris.

Marc Bulger, QB, Rams (PIT, 5.8): All indications are that he'll play despite taking another shot to the head in Week 15. But a player at potentially less than 100 percent isn't a recommended fantasy option against a defense like this. Bulger has averaged 184.1 passing yards with five touchdowns and 11 interceptions in his past eight games, and many of those games were against far weaker defenses than Pittsburgh's. The Steelers, incidentally, rank third in the league against the pass and play quite a physical game, so there's also a risk of reinjury.

Jay Cutler, QB, Broncos (@SD, 6.8): Cutler has nine touchdowns the past five weeks and is looking like one of the more reliable quarterbacks in the NFL. But I'm interested to see what the Broncos bring to the table in Week 16. This represents the first time since 2001 that they'll kick off a game knowing they're already out of the playoffs, and they'll do it against the Chargers, a certain playoff team and one with a combined 16 interceptions and 16 sacks the past six weeks. It's asking a lot of Cutler to rise above this matchup.

Vernon Davis, TE, 49ers (TB, 3.5): He has been pretty vocal about his frustrations with limited usage in the offense, and who can blame him? The 49ers have frequently kept him in to block on passing downs against teams with a strong pass rush, and the Buccaneers do have 13 sacks the past five weeks combined. Tampa Bay's defense, incidentally, has allowed the second-fewest fantasy points to tight ends (4.0 per game).

Derrick Mason, WR, Ravens (@SEA, 4.4): Baltimore's offense is a mess right now, so don't look at his two touchdowns the past two weeks and assume he's a safe play here. It's a road contest, and the Seahawks have 11 interceptions and 15 sacks the past five weeks, putting constant pressure on opposing quarterbacks. Kyle Boller won't get much time to locate Mason, who'll catch a few passes but likely will do little with them.

Reggie Williams, WR, Jaguars (OAK, 4.4): While David Garrard does look his way often in red zone situations, making him fantasy-relevant, it's still worth noting that Williams doesn't haul in many passes each week. For instance, he has four touchdowns the past six weeks, but only 14 receptions and 27 targets during that span. That's not a lot of opportunities for a receiver to help you, and facing a good pass defense like Oakland's -- Nnamdi Asomugha has been shutting down top receivers regularly -- Williams should be avoided.

The "Big Guns" to Avoid

They rank among the 10 most expensive at their respective positions, and the matchup dictates you'd be better off spending the money elsewhere.

Frank Gore, RB, 49ers (TB, 6.1 price tag): Tampa Bay is one of two defenses that hasn't allowed a rushing touchdown the past five weeks (New Orleans is the other). Plus, in their past six contests, the Buccaneers have allowed just 75.5 rushing yards per game. With the 49ers' league-worst passing game doing nothing to alleviate defensive attention on Gore, he'll be an easy target for this skilled defense.

Clinton Portis, RB, Redskins (@MIN, 6.1): Minnesota's run defense is still one of the stingiest in football, ranking first for the season (67.9 yards per game), first the past five weeks (52.8) and second in the league in yards-per-carry allowed (3.0). These Vikings have allowed but three runs of 20-plus yards all season. Portis has sure been worked hard this year, ranking third in rushing attempts (280), and one must wonder whether fatigue, as well as a brutal matchup, might lead to a relatively quiet day for him.

Have No Fear

Their matchups might not look good, but you shouldn't be worried.

Steven Jackson, RB, Rams (PIT, 6.8 price tag): The Steelers might boast one of the stronger run defenses in the game and regularly hold opposing runners beneath the 100-yard plateau, but Jackson brings two appealing things to the table: a nose for the end zone, and an ability to catch passes. Even in the event he's stuffed at the line on occasion as a runner, he'll haul in 5-6 passes, rack up a decent number of total yards and be a decent bet to score should the Rams get into the red zone. He's too talented to sit.

Tristan's Gridiron Challenge Lineup: Week 16

Week 15 Recap: My quarterbacks, who went head-to-head, carried me in Week 15, as Drew Brees and Kurt Warner combined for 548 yards and five scores through the air, good for 41 total fantasy points. Beyond that, though, there wasn't a lot to get too excited about. Bad weather hurt Lee Evans' chances (3 points), and Jamal Lewis (17) probably could've fared better in the touchdown department in that game, too, had there not been blizzard conditions. Having four players from that Bills-Browns game was devastating, and I imagine most people might have opted out of that game on Sunday. Not me. I've noted before in my column that my Wednesday picks stand through week's end despite the temptation to make late swaps. The point here is to demonstrate the performance of my early-week picks, so I have to live with bad luck, injuries and the weather, unfortunately. Score: 94 points in Week 15, 1,540 points for the season (70.4 percent).

QB1: Matt Hasselbeck, Seahawks (BAL, 7.6 price tag)
QB2: Derek Anderson, Browns (@CIN, 6.9)
RB1: Adrian Peterson, Vikings (WAS, 6.2)
RB2: Jamal Lewis, Browns (@CIN, 6.2)
WR1: Deion Branch, Seahawks (BAL, 5.0)
WR2: Roddy White, Falcons (@ARI, 4.6)
TE: Kellen Winslow, Browns (@CIN, 4.4)
K: Josh Brown, Seahawks (BAL, 4.3)
D/ST: Tampa Bay Buccaneers (@SF, 5.1)

Tristan H. Cockcroft covers fantasy sports for ESPN.com. You can e-mail him here.



 
Prizes

Play Gridiron Challenge for your chance to win a $1,100 Best Buy Gift Card and the Ultimate Fan Pack.
Total ARV is $2,500